4 Jan

Russia’s Crude Oil Production Reached a 30-Year High

WRITTEN BY Gordon Kristopher

Russia’s crude oil production

Russia’s crude oil production averaged 10.98 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in 2017, according to Russia’s Ministry of Energy. Production rose 0.1% year-over-year in 2017—a 30-year high. Production rose for the ninth consecutive year. Production rose 0.1% to 10.95 MMbpd in December 2017—compared to the previous month. Russia’s crude oil production increased despite ongoing output cuts.

Russia’s production rose ~80% from 6.1 MMbpd in 1999. Any rise in Russia’s crude oil production is bearish for crude oil (BNO) (USO) prices.

Russia’s Crude Oil Production Reached a 30-Year High

Russia’s crude oil exports 

Russia’s crude oil exports fell 5.3% to 5.24 MMbpd in December 2017—compared to November 2017, according to Russia’s Ministry of Energy. Any drop in exports is bullish for oil (BNO) prices. 

Crude oil (DWT) prices are at a multiyear high. Higher oil (UWT) prices favor energy producers (XLE) (XOP) like Stone Energy (SGY), ConocoPhillips (COP), Rosneft, and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP).

Russia and production cuts 

Russia and OPEC supported the extension of ongoing output cuts until December 2018. Russia agreed to cut production by 300,000 bpd as part of the production cut deal. Brent (BNO) and US crude oil prices rose ~17% and ~12.4 due to the production cuts in 2017.

Impact

If Russia has a higher compliance with the production cuts, it could support oil (SCO) prices. However, an early exit or lower compliance with the production cuts could pressure oil (USL) prices.

Next, we’ll discuss how OPEC’s crude oil production impacts oil prices.

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