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Will Oil Prices Stall Here?

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US crude oil

On January 29, 2018, US crude oil (USO) (USL) March futures declined 0.9% and settled at $65.56 per barrel. On the same day, Iraq’s oil minister commented that Iraq will fully comply with OPEC’s pledged output cut. At a 100% compliance rate in January 2018, Iraq’s oil output should fall by 54 Mbpd (thousand barrels per day) from the level in December 2017—based on secondary sources.

However, rising oil production and oil exports from the US could counter the possible fall in the global oil supply. We’ll discuss these factors in Part 2 and Part 4 of this series. In Part 3, we’ll discuss the required changes in US crude oil inventories that could boost oil prices.

On January 22–29, 2018, the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA) rose 0.7% and 0.9%. A gain of 3.1% in US crude oil futures could boost the equity indexes’ energy exposures.

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Moving averages

On January 29, 2018, US crude oil active futures were 3.9%, 9.8%, 17.6%, and 26.9% above their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, respectively. On the same day, the 50-day moving average was 15.5% above the 200-day moving average, which is bullish for oil prices.

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