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Global Crude Oil Supply Outages Could Push Oil Prices Higher


Nov. 20 2020, Updated 2:46 p.m. ET

Global crude oil supply outages 

According to the EIA, global crude oil supply outages increased by 208,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 14% to 1,738,000 bpd in December 2017—compared to November 2017. However, supply outages declined by 494,000 bpd or 22% year-over-year.

Global crude oil supply outages were near a four-month high in December 2017. Any increase in supply outages is bullish for oil (BNO) (USO) prices. Higher oil (UCO) prices benefit energy companies (IXC) (IYE) like Viper Energy (VNOM), Stone Energy (SGY), and Triangle Petroleum (TPLM).

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Highs and lows  

Global crude oil supply outages hit 1.53 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in November 2017—the lowest level since 2011. On the other hand, supply outages hit 3.7 MMbpd in May 2016—the highest level since 2011. Brent (BNO) oil prices increased 12.4% in May 2016 from April 2016 partly due to supply outages.

OPEC and non-OPEC and oil supply outages in 2016 and 2017 

OPEC producers’ oil supply outages averaged 2.2 MMbpd in 2016. Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq had the most supply outages among OPEC producers in 2016. OPEC producers’ oil supply outages averaged 1.4 MMbpd in 2017. Libya, Nigeria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait had the most supply outages among OPEC producers in 2017.

Non-OPEC oil producers’ supply outages averaged 0.47 MMbpd in 2016 and 0.53 MMbpd in 2017. Yemen, Sudan, and Canada had the most supply outages among non-OPEC producers in 2016. Canada, Yemen, and Sudan had the most supply outages among non-OPEC producers in 2017.

Impact of global crude oil supply outages  

Global supply outages averaged 2.7 MMbpd and 1.9 MMbpd in 2016 and 2017. Supply outages could increase due to geopolitical tensions and the weather. Any unplanned supply outages from Libya, Nigeria, Iran, and Iraq could boost oil (DWT) (SCO) prices in 2018.

Read Crude Oil Prices Could Hit $80 per Barrel in 2018 for updates on crude oil.


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