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Forecasting Hess’s Stock Price Based on Its Implied Volatility

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Jan. 5 2018, Updated 10:30 a.m. ET

Hess’s implied volatility

Hess’s (HES) current implied volatility is ~32.3%, which is ~3.1% higher than its 15-day average of ~31.3%. In comparison, peers Apache (APA), Concho Resources (CXO), and Continental Resources (CLR) have implied volatility of ~30.1%, 20.4%, and ~28.4, respectively.

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Stock price forecast

Based on Hess’s implied volatility of ~32.3% and assuming a normal distribution of prices with a standard deviation of one, we can forecast its stock price range for the next 90 days. Hess stock will likely close between $39.47 and $54.55 in the next three months and stay in that range 68.0% of the time. In the next part, we’ll look Hess stock’s short interest trends.

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