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Could Apple Beat Analyst Estimates in Fiscal 1Q18?

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Jan. 23 2018, Published 4:08 p.m. ET

Revenue estimates

Apple (AAPL) will be announcing its fiscal 1Q18 results on February 1, 2018. Analysts expect Apple to post revenues of $86.5 billion. Wall Street has a low revenue estimate of $84 billion and a high estimate of $89.8 billion for Apple in the quarter ended in December 2017. If Apple meets the average revenue estimate of $86.5 billion, it would mean a YoY (year-over-year) rise of 10.4% compared to revenue of $78.4 billion in fiscal 1Q17.

Analysts expect Apple to post non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) EPS (earnings per share) of $3.78 with a low estimate of $3.41 and a high estimate of $3.94. In fiscal 1Q17, Apple reported EPS of $3.36.

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Apple beat earnings estimates in last 4 quarters

As you can see in the above chart, Apple has beaten analysts’ average EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters. It posted EPS of $2.07 in fiscal 4Q17, beating estimates of $1.87 by 10.7%. It also posted EPS of $1.67, $2.10, and $3.36 in 3Q17, 2Q17, and 1Q17, respectively, beating estimates by 6.4%, 4%, and 4.7%, respectively.

Driven by earnings that consistently exceeded estimates last year, Apple stock rose ~50% in 2017. Seagate Technology (STX), Western Digital (WDC), and HP (HPQ) generated returns of 17%, 20%, and 46%, respectively, in 2017.

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