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MRO’s Possible Trading Range for the Week Ending December 15

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Marathon Oil’s implied volatility

On December 8, 2017, Marathon Oil (MRO) had implied volatility of ~33.4%, which is higher than its implied volatility of ~32.98% at the end of 3Q17. Since the start of 3Q17, MRO’s stock price has risen ~13.0%. This resulted in the increase in its implied volatility since the start of 3Q17.

MRO’s price range forecast

Based on Marathon Oil’s (MRO) implied volatility of ~33.4%, its stock is expected to close between $14.45 and $15.85 in the next seven calendar days. MRO stock should stay in this range ~68.0% of the time.

This forecast assumes the normal distribution of prices, a 365-day year, and a standard deviation of 1.0. On December 8, MRO stock closed at $15.15.

Peer price range forecasts

On December 8, 2017, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) had an implied volatility of ~23.9%. This metric means that PXD stock is expected to close between $150.75 and $161.05 in the next seven calendar days. On December 8, PXD stock closed at $155.90.

On December 8, 2017, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) had an implied volatility of 8.6%. This metric means that DIA is expected to close between $240.72 and $246.52 in the next seven calendar days. On December 8, DIA closed at $243.62.

Based on the inputs used in the calculation of these price ranges, there is a 68.0% probability that these stocks and funds should close in their range for the given period.

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