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World Bank Thinks US Natural Gas Prices Could Rise in 2018

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Nov. 20 2020, Updated 5:29 p.m. ET

World Bank’s forecast for US natural gas prices 

US natural gas (UGAZ) (BOIL) (FCG) prices averaged $2.63 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in 2015 and $2.51 per MMBtu in 2016. US natural gas prices were 26% higher in the first nine months of 2017—compared to the same period in 2016. World Bank expects that US natural gas prices could average $3.1 per MMBtu in 2018, which would be 4% higher than the average level in 2017. High prices could be driven by strong domestic consumption, rising exports, and a small rise in natural gas production.

Higher natural gas (DGAZ) (GASL) prices are bullish for energy producers (VDE)(PXI) like Rex Energy (REXX), Exco Resources (XCO), Newfield Exploration (NFX), and Antero Resources (AR).

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EIA’s US natural gas price forecasts 

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) predicts that US natural gas prices could average $3.03 per MMBtu in 2017 and $3.19 per MMBtu in 2018.

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices might not exceed $3.18 per MMBtu by December 2017. The prices might not exceed $3.29 per MMBtu by March 2018.

Impact  

High US natural gas production in 2018 could lead to oversupply, which could pressure natural gas prices. Lower natural gas is bearish for energy producers like Rex Energy and Antero Resources.

Read WTI and Brent Crude Oil Futures Could Test New Highs and Global Crude Oil Glut: Is It Shrinking? for the latest updates on crude oil.

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