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Mosaic’s Shipments Were Weak in 3Q17

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Mosaic’s sales driver

Mosaic’s (MOS) sales grew 2% YoY (year-over-year). The sales were supported by the company’s Potash and International Distribution segments. However, the Phosphate segment dragged down the YoY sales. Let’s dig deeper into what drove the sales for each of Mosaic’s segments.

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Shipments

Overall, the shipments for all three of Mosaic’s combined segments fell 2% YoY. Out of the three segments, the Phosphate segment’s shipments suffered the most. The segment fell as much as 17% YoY to 2.1 million tons from 2.5 million tons.

The Potash segment’s shipments fell 0.4% YoY to 2.2 million tons. In contrast, the International Distribution segment’s shipments grew as much as 13% YoY to 2.5 million tons from 2.2 million tons a year ago.

We continue to see strong demand for potash products. However, the Phosphate segment remained a weak spot for Mosaic.

Management’s outlook

PotashCorp (POT) provided a positive outlook for potash shipment growth (MXI) in the coming quarters.

For the Potash segment, the shipments are expected to fall by 1.9 million–2.2 million metric tons—compared to the shipment volume of 1.9 million metric tons in 3Q16. It shows growth in Mosaic’s potash shipment volume, which is consistent with PotashCorp’s outlook. The higher potash volume should also be positive for Intrepid Potash (IPI) and Agrium (AGU).

For the Phosphate segment, Mosaic expects the shipments to be 2.3 million–2.6 million metric tons—compared to the shipment volume of 2.5 million metric tons in 3Q16.

For the International Distribution segment, the shipments are estimated to be 1.5 million–1.8 million metric tons—compared to 1.9 million metric tons in 3Q16.

In the next part, we’ll discuss Mosaic’s realized prices.

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