What We Can Forecast for Nabors Industries



Nabors Industries’ implied volatility

On November 16, Nabors Industries’ (NBR) implied volatility was ~66%. Since NBR’s 3Q17 financial results were announced on October 24, its implied volatility has risen from 62.5%. Nabors Industries is 0.01% of the iShares Dow Jones US ETF (IYY). IYY has risen 1% since October 24 versus a ~12% fall in NBR’s stock price during the period. Since October 24, the S&P 500 Index (SPX-INDEX) has risen 1%.

NBR’s implied volatility on November 16 was higher than its average since November 2015.

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Forecast for Nabors Industries

NBR’s stock will likely close between $6.20 and $5.16 in the next seven days. Here, we consider Nabors Industries’ implied volatility and assume a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%. NBR’s stock price was $5.68 on November 16.

Implied volatility for NBR’s peers

Helmerich & Payne’s (HP) implied volatility on November 16 was ~26%. CARBO Ceramics’ (CRR) implied volatility on November 16 was ~67%. TechnipFMC’s (FTI) implied volatility was 32% on November 16.

What’s NBR’s correlation with crude oil prices? Let’s find this out in the next part of this series.


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