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US Natural Gas Production’s 22-Month High: Will Prices Collapse?

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Oct. 16 2017, Published 3:54 p.m. ET

EIA’s: US natural gas production 

US dry natural gas production rose by 3 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.9 Bcf per day in July 2017—compared with the previous month. Production rose 4% month-over-month and 2.2 Bcf per day or 3% from the same period in 2016.

US natural gas production is at a 22-month high. High natural gas production could have a negative impact on natural gas (UNG)(DGAZ)(UGAZ) prices. 

Moves in natural gas (GASL)(FCG) prices impact natural gas producers (OIH)(IEO) like Gulfport Energy (GPOR), Rex Energy (REXX), and Southwestern Energy (SWN). 

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Weekly US natural gas production 

Market data provider PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production fell by 1.7 Bcf per day to 72.4 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day from October 5 to 11. Production fell 2.3% week-over-week but rose 2.1 Bcf per day or 3% year-over-year.

The EIA’s natural gas production estimates  

The EIA released its STEO (“Short-Term Energy Outlook”) report on October 11. It estimates that US dry natural gas production would average 73.6 Bcf per day in 2017—0.1% lower than the estimates from the September STEO report. The EIA also estimates that US dry natural gas production would average 78.5 Bcf per day in 2018—0.5% higher than the estimates from the September STEO report.

US production averaged 74.15 Bcf per day in 2015. Production fell to 72.85 Bcf per day in 2016—the first fall in 11 years. 

Impact  

According to the EIA, high US natural gas supplies could weigh on natural gas (UNG)(BOIL) prices.

Next in this series, we’ll cover US natural gas consumption.

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