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US Crude Oil Inventories Are 21% above their Five-Year Average

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US crude oil inventories 

The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” on October 12, 2017. It estimates that crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 MMbbls (million barrels) to 462.2 MMbbls between September 29 and October 6. Similarly, US inventories are down 11.8 MMbbls or 2.5% year-over-year.

The market anticipated that US crude oil inventories would have fallen by 2.4 MMbbls between September 29 and October 6. WTI crude oil (UWT)(OIL)(USO) prices fell on October 12 despite the larger-than-expected fall in US crude oil inventories. We covered the bearish oil drivers in Part 1 of this series.

WTI oil prices are down 10.7% year-to-date. Lower oil prices have a bearish impact on oil and gas producers like (IEO)(FENY) like Energen (EGN), Northern Oil & Gas (NOG), and Anadarko Petroleum (APC).

US refinery crude oil demand, imports, and exports

US refinery demand rose by 229,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 16, 258,000 bpd between September 29 and October 6. Refinery demand rose 1.4% week-over-week and 706,000 bpd or 4.5% year-over-year.

US crude oil imports rose by 403,000 bpd to 7,617,000 bpd. Imports rose 5.5% week-over-week but are down 244,000 bpd or 3.1% year-over-year.

US crude oil exports fell by 714,000 bpd to 1, 270,000 bpd. Exports fell 36% week-over-week but rose 789,000 bpd or 164% year-over-year.

Impact of US crude oil inventories

US crude oil inventories are 21% higher than their five-year average for the week ending October 6. High crude oil inventories could weigh on crude oil (UCO)(UWT) prices.

Next, we’ll cover US crude oil production and estimates for 2018.

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