# Implied Volatility of Top 5 Upstream Stocks: What Can We Gauge?

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## Implied volatility

On October 4, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), and EOG Resources (EOG) had implied volatilities of ~22.4%, ~31.0%, ~20.0%, 30.1%, and 22.3%, respectively. These upstream stocks fall into the top-five category when scaled by revenues.

## Forecasting stock price ranges using implied volatility

Based on their respective implied volatilities and assuming a normal distribution of stock prices with a standard deviation of one and a probability of 68.2%, our top five upstream stocks will likely close in the following ranges during the next 30 days:

• ConocoPhillips (COP): \$46.08–\$52.40
• Devon Energy (DVN): \$33.27–\$39.79
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY): \$60.32–\$67.64