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Global Crude Oil Supply Outages Are near a 6-Year Low


Nov. 20 2020, Updated 5:32 p.m. ET

Global crude oil supply outages

The EIA estimates that global crude oil supply outages fell by 271,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 1,606,000 bpd in September 2017—compared to August 2017. Supply outages fell 15% month-over-month. They have fallen by 1,124,000 bpd or 42% from the same period in 2016. The supply outages are at the lowest level since January 2012.

A fall in global crude oil supply outages is bearish for oil (BNO) (USO) (USL) prices. Changes in oil prices impact oil producers (FXN) (FENY) like Shell (RDS.A), Continental Resources (CLR), Bill Barrett (BBG), and Comstock Resources (CRK).

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Highs and lows 

Global crude oil supply outages hit ~1, 606,000 bpd in September 2017 as discussed above. In contrast, the supply outages hit ~3,600,000 bpd in May 2016—the highest level since 2011. The supply outages rose in May 2016 due to the wildfire in Canada.

OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil supply outages 

Non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) producers’ crude oil supply outages fell by 160,000 bpd to 480,000 bpd in September 2017 compared to the previous month—the lowest level since February 2017. Yemen and Sudan had major supply outages among non-OPEC producers in September 2017.

OPEC producers’ crude oil supply outages also fell by ~111,000 bpd to 1,125,000 bpd in September 2017—compared to the previous month. Libya, Iraq, and Kuwait had the major supply outages among OPEC producers.

Impact of a rise in global crude oil supply outages

Global crude oil supply outages are near a six-year low. Any fall in the crude oil supply outage could increase the supplies, which could pressure oil (BNO) (DWT) prices.

In the next part, we’ll discuss some crude oil price forecasts.


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