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Tracking India’s Crude Oil Imports and Demand

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India’s crude oil imports

India is the third-largest consumer of crude oil in the world. India’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell estimated that the country’s crude oil imports rose 210,000 bpd to 4.4 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in August 2017, compared with imports in July 2017—a 5% month-over-month rise.

However, India’s crude oil imports have fallen 160,000 bpd, or 3.5% YoY (year-over-year), and the year-over-year fall in India’s crude oil imports is bearish for crude oil (BNO) (USO) prices.

Remember, lower crude oil prices have a negative impact on oil producers (XLE) (XES) like Saudi Aramco, National Iranian Oil, Sanchez Energy (SN), and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP).

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India’s oil consumption

India’s crude oil demand averaged 4.4 MMbpd in 2016. Its crude oil demand is expected to rise 3.0% to 4.5 MMbpd in 2017. India’s crude oil imports averaged 4.0 MMbpd in 2016, and imports are expected to average about 4.3 MMbpd in 2017.

Meanwhile, the IEA (International Energy Agency) projects that India’s crude oil demand growth rate will be the highest by 2040.

Impact

High crude oil imports and demand from India are bullish for crude oil (BNO) (UCO) (DBO) prices, and higher crude oil prices have a positive impact on oil producers (RYE) (VDE) and oil tankers like DHT Holdings (DHT) and Nordic American Tankers (NAT).

In the next and final part of this series, we’ll discuss how OPEC’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) spare crude oil production capacity could impact crude oil prices.

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