Marathon Oil’s implied volatility
As of September 1, 2017, Marathon Oil (MRO) had an implied volatility of ~35.4%, which is higher than 32.7% on August 25, 2017.
Weekly price range forecast
Based on its implied volatility of ~35.4% and assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and a standard deviation of one, Marathon Oil stock is expected to close between $11.82 and $10.72 in the next seven days. MRO stock will stay in this range 68.0% of the time based on the standard statistical formula.
As of September 1, 2017, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has an implied volatility of 7.7%. In August 2017, SPY’s implied volatility marked a high of 21.5%. Implied volatility doesn’t forecast a stock’s future direction. Implied volatility is derived from an option pricing model. That means the data are theoretical, and there is no guarantee these forecasts will be correct.
Marathon Oil’s moving averages
As of September 1, 2017, MRO is trading below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages. MRO fell below its 50-day moving average in the third week of August. On September 1, 2017, MRO stock closed at $11.27, whereas its 200-day and 50-day moving averages were $14.67 and $11.63, respectively. That also means that MRO’s 50-day moving average was below its 200-day moving average, which is technically a bearish sign.
As of September 1, 2017, MRO’s peers ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), and Southwestern Energy (SWN) have implied volatilities of ~22.6%, ~30.8%, and ~52.6%, respectively. Devon Energy (DVN) and ConocoPhillips (COP) have shown considerable increases in implied volatilities compared to their implied volatilities of ~30.4% and ~21.4%, respectively, on August 25, 2017. The First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas ETF (FCG) invests in natural gas producers, whereas the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) generally invests at least 95.0% of its total assets in oil and gas companies.