Basic Energy Services’ implied volatility
On September 22, Basic Energy Services’ (BAS) implied volatility was ~79%. Since 2Q17 earnings were announced on July 27, Basic Energy Services’ implied volatility (or IV) has risen from 62% to the current level. Since July 27, BAS’s stock price has fallen nearly 40%.
Basic Energy Services’ seven-day stock price forecast
Based on Basic Energy Services’ implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%, BAS’s stock will likely close between $19.13 and $15.35 in the next seven days. BAS’s stock price was $17.24 on September 22.
What does implied volatility mean for BAS’s peers?
Implied volatility (or IV) reflects investors’ views of a stock’s potential price movement. CARBO Ceramics’ (CRR) implied volatility on September 22 was ~63%, which implies CRR’s stock will likely close between $8.89 and $7.47 in the next seven days. Helix Energy Solution’s (HLX) implied volatility was 52% on the day, which implied HLX’s stock would likely close between $7.99 and $6.93 in the next seven days. Helmerich & Payne’s (HP) implied volatility was 28% on September 22, which indicates HP’s stock will likely close between $52.97 and $49.05 on the next seven days.
Next, we’ll discuss whether investors have shown interest in BAS’s stock, which its short interest indicates.