4 Aug

US Natural Gas Production Hit a 10-Month High

WRITTEN BY Gordon Kristopher

Monthly US natural gas production

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that monthly US dry natural gas production rose by 2.69 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 74.29 Bcf per day in May 2017—compared to the previous month.

US dry natural gas production rose by 3.8% week-over-week but fell 1% YoY (year-over-year). Production is at a ten-month high. High production is bearish for natural gas (UGAZ) (DGAZ) (UNG) prices.

Lower natural gas prices have a negative impact on natural gas producers’ profitability like Rex Energy (REXX), Rice Energy (RICE), and Antero Resources (AR).

US Natural Gas Production Hit a 10-Month High

Weekly US natural gas production

PointLogic estimates that weekly US dry natural gas production rose 0.1% to 72.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on July 27–August 2, 2017. US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf per day or 1.25% YoY.

Peaks and lows

Monthly US dry natural gas production hit 76.8 Bcf per day in July 2015—the highest level ever. On the other hand, production was 67.3 Bcf per day in February 2017—the lowest level since February 2015. Production fell due to weak natural gas and crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (USO) prices in early 2016.

EIA’s natural gas production estimates

The EIA estimates that US dry natural gas production will average 73.3 Bcf per day in 2017 and 76.42 Bcf per day in 2018. Production was 74.1 Bcf per day and 72.3 Bcf per day in 2015 and 2016, respectively. In 2016, production fell for the first time since 2005.

Why would US natural gas production rise in 2017 and 2018?

US natural gas production would rise due to the following factors:

OPEC’s production cut deal could help rebalance the oil market. It would support crude oil prices and US crude oil production, which would benefit natural gas production.

Impact

The rise in US natural gas production would pressure natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices have a negative impact on natural gas producers’ profitability like Rex Energy and Antero Resources.

In the next part of this series, we’ll take a look at the latest updates on natural gas consumption.

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