As of August 25, 2017, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~54.4%, which is much higher than its implied volatility of ~49.6% on August 18, 2017.
Weekly price range forecast
Based on its implied volatility of ~54.4%, assuming a bell curve model which assumes a normal distribution of prices, a standard deviation of one, and 365 days in a year, Southwestern Energy stock is expected to close between $5.73 and $4.93 in the next seven calendar days. Southwestern Energy stock will likely stay in this range 68% of the time—based on the standard statistical formula.
As of August 25, 2017, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has an implied volatility of 8.4%. In the last three weeks, SPY’s implied volatility saw large fluctuations and marked a high of 21.50%. Implied volatility doesn’t forecast the stock’s future direction. It’s derived from an option pricing model. The data are theoretical. There isn’t a guarantee that the forecasts will be correct.
As of August 25, 2017, Southwestern Energy is trading below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Since its downtrend started, Southwestern Energy stock is finding strong resistance from its 50-day moving average. On August 25, its stock price closed at $5.33, while its 200-day and 50-day moving averages stand at $7.94 and $5.64, respectively. Southwestern Energy’s 50-day moving average stands below its 200-day moving average, which is a bearish sign.
As of August 25, 2017, Southwestern Energy’s peers ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), and Marathon Oil (MRO) have implied volatilities of ~21.40%, ~30.4%, and ~32.7%. Just like Southwestern Energy, Devon Energy has shown a considerable increase in its implied volatility compared to its implied volatility of ~21.9% on August 18, 2017. The First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) invests in natural gas producers, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) generally invests at least 95% of its total assets in oil and gas companies.