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Global Oil Demand and Crude Oil Price Forecasts

Gordon Kristopher - Author
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Nov. 20 2020, Updated 11:36 a.m. ET

Global oil demand 

In June 2017, global oil demand growth rose by 1.54 MMbpd (million barrels per day) year-over-year. Global oil demand was strong between May 2017 and June 2017, according to Goldman Sachs. The US, China, India, Japan, Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, and France are major crude oil consumers. They contribute 52% of the global oil demand. The oil demand is driven by strong economic growth. The oil demand is 80% correlated to economic growth. The expectation of improving economic growth in these countries would drive the demand and support oil (XLE) (XOP) (USO) prices. 

Higher crude oil (RYE) (VDE) prices have a positive impact on oil and gas producers such as Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO), Cobalt International Energy (CIE), and Continental Resources (CLR).

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Crude oil price forecasts 

A Wall Street Journal survey estimates that Brent crude oil prices could average $53 per barrel in 2017—$2 per barrel lower than the previous estimate. It also estimates that Brent crude oil prices could average $55 per barrel in 2018—$2 per barrel lower than the previous estimate.

Some traders think that crude oil prices could fall in September and October due to the seasonality factor. Crude oil demand tends to fall at this time of the year.

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that US crude oil (SCO) (BNO) prices will average $48.9 per barrel in 2017 and $49.5 per barrel in 2018. The EIA also estimates that Brent crude oil prices will average $50.79 per barrel in 2017 and $51.6 per barrel in 2018.

WTI and Brent crude oil prices averaged $43.3 per barrel and $43.7 per barrel, respectively, in 2016.

Read Is the Worst Over for the Crude Oil Market? and Will the OPEC and Non-OPEC Meeting Drive Crude Oil Futures? for more information.

For more on natural gas, read Supply and Demand Could Drive Natural Gas Prices Higher.

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