# Analyzing California Resources’ Implied Volatility

By Nicholas ChapmanUpdated

## California Resources’ implied volatility

As of August 16, 2017, California Resources (CRC) had an implied volatility of 87.6%, which is much lower than 91.6% on August 4, 2017.

## CRC’s price range forecast

Based on its implied volatility of ~87.6% and assuming a bell curve model (or normal distribution of prices), 365 days in a year, and a standard deviation of one, CRC stock is expected to close between $8.23 and $4.98 in the next 30 days. It will stay in that range 68.0% of the time, based on the standard statistical formula.

As of August 16, 2017, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has an implied volatility of 17.2%. Implied volatility doesn’t forecast a stock’s future direction. Implied volatility is derived from an option pricing model, which means the data are theoretical, and there’s no guarantee these forecasts will be correct.

## California Resources’ moving averages

As of August 16, 2017, CRC is trading below its 200-day and 50-day moving averages. In fact, it hasn’t moved above its 50-day moving average since February 7, 2017. On August 16, CRC stock closed at $6.65, whereas its 200-day and 50-day moving averages were $14.05 and $8.35, respectively. That means that CRC’s 50-day moving average is below its 200-day moving average, which is technically a bearish sign.

## Peers

CRC’s peers such as Consol Energy (CNX), Devon Energy (DVN), and Range Resources (RRC) have implied volatilities of 43.8%, 36.7%, and 49.1%. All these companies have shown considerable changes in implied volatilities compared to their volatilities of 40.3%, 38.7%, and 45.5% on August 4, 2017. The First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas ETF (FCG) invests in natural gas producers, whereas the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) generally invests at least 95.0% of its total assets in oil and gas companies.