What Do Analysts Estimate for TripAdvisor in 2017?



Sales estimates

Analysts are estimating TripAdvisor’s (TRIP) sales growth to improve. After seeing a growth of 5.7% YoY (year-over-year) in 1Q17 to $372.0 million and a growth of 8.4% YoY in 2Q17 to $424 million, its revenue is expected to rise 9.2% YoY to $459.9 million. Revenue growth is then expected to accelerate to 9.4% YoY in 4Q17 to $345.6 million. For 2017, TripAdvisor is expected to see sales growth of 8.2% YoY to ~$1.6 billion. In 2018, sales growth is expected to further accelerate to 11.1%.

EBITDA estimates

For 3Q17, TRIP’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) is expected to fall 14.0% YoY to $98.0 million. For 4Q17, EBITDA is expected to fall 1.9% YoY to $56.9 million. The fall will be driven by falling EBITDA margins. For 3Q17, EBITDA margins are expected to fall to 21.3% compared to 27.1% in 3Q16, and for 4Q17, they’re expected to fall to 16.5% compared to 18.4% in 4Q16.

In line with management’s outlook, analysts are estimating TripAdvisor’s EBITDA for 2017 to fall 1.0% YoY to $349.4 million. For 2017, its EBITDA margins are expected to fall to 21.0% compared to 23.0% in 2016.

Earnings estimate

EPS (earnings per share) is expected to fall 28.0% YoY in 3Q17 to $0.38. For 4Q17, EPS is expected to rise 13.8% YoY to $0.18. That could lead to 2017 EPS falling 18.3% to $1.14.

Investors can gain exposure to online travel stocks by investing in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), which holds 1.2% of its holdings in Priceline (PCLN), 1.2% in TripAdvisor, and 1.1% in Expedia (EXPE). It has no holdings in Ctrip.com International (CTRP).

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