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What’s Flotek Industries’ Stock Price Forecast on July 3?

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FTK’s implied volatility in context

On July 3, 2017, Flotek Industries’ (FTK) implied volatility was ~58%. Since its 1Q17 earnings were announced on May 3, 2017, Flotek’s implied volatility has remained unchanged. Remember, IV (implied volatility) mirrors the investors’ views of a stock’s potential movement.

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Peer comparisons

CARBO Ceramics’ (CRR) implied volatility on July 3, 2017, was ~86%, while Helix Energy Solution’s (HLX) implied volatility was 67% that day. Helmerich & Payne’s (HP) implied volatility stood at ~34%.

The implied volatility of crude oil was 27.5% on July 3, 2017. In the past three years until July 3, crude oil’s implied volatility was the highest in February 2016 at ~78%.

FTK’s implied volatility, past and present

On December 7, 2016, FTK’s implied volatility rose to 91% on the news of an investigation by a law firm. FTK’s stock price tumbled 15% that day from the previous day’s close.

But FTK’S IV has subsided gradually and is currently marginally higher than its average of 60% over the past three years. In November 2015, FTK’s implied volatility spiked abruptly but then settled down soon thereafter.

Since May 2017, FTK’s implied volatility has increased from ~45% to its current 58%, though crude oil volatility during the same period has actually tapered off.

Stock price forecast for Flotek

Given Flotek Industries’ implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%, FTK’s stock will likely close between $9.81 and $8.35 in the next seven days. FTK’s stock price was $9.08 on July 3, 2017.

Notably, FTK makes up 0.07% of the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR). IJR has remained nearly unchanged since March 31, 2017, compared with FTK’s 30% fall during the same period.

Next, we’ll discuss short interest in FTK stock.

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