Odd of beating earnings

In the last four quarters, Southwestern Energy (SWN) beat the consensus EPS estimate in 2Q16 and 1Q17. However, Southwestern Energy also missed the consensus EPS estimate in 3Q16 and 4Q16. In the last four quarters, Southwestern Energy beat the consensus EPS estimate 50% of the time and missed the consensus EPS estimate 50% of the time.

What Are the Odds? Southwestern Energy’s 2Q17 Earnings

Stock price reaction to 1Q17 earnings

Southwestern Energy announced its 1Q17 earnings on April 27, 2017, after the market closed. Southwestern Energy reported an adjusted profit of $0.18 per share—$0.01 better than Wall Street analysts’ consensus for a profit of $0.17 per share. Southwestern Energy’s 1Q17 earnings are higher by $0.26 per share compared to a loss of $0.08 per share in 1Q16. Even when compared sequentially, Southwestern Energy’s 1Q17 earnings are higher by $0.10 per share compared to a profit of $0.08 per share in 4Q16. Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw Southwestern Energy’s stock price fall from $7.67 to $7.02 in five sessions.

2Q16 post earnings price action

Southwestern Energy announced its 2Q16 earnings on July 21, 2016, after the market closed. In 2Q16, excluding one-time items, Southwestern Energy beat the consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimate by $0.01. Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw Southwestern Energy’s stock price rise ~9% in two sessions.

Other oil and gas producers

In the last four quarters, other upstream players like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Devon Energy (DVN), and Murphy Oil (MUR) beat the earnings expectations ~75%, ~100%, and ~75% of the time, respectively. The ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG) invests in natural gas producers.

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