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How ProQuad/MMR-II/Varivax Vaccines Are Expected to Perform in 2017

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Revenue trends for ProQuad/MMR-II/Varivax

In 2016, Merck’s (MRK) ProQuad reported revenues of ~$495 million, which reflected 9% year-over-year (or YoY) growth. High demand and favorable pricing in the US primarily pushed its revenue growth in 2016.

In 2016, MMR-II generated revenues of around $353 million, which reflected a 3% decline YoY. In 2015, a measles outbreak in the US led to comparatively higher revenues compared to its 2014 and 2016 revenues.

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In 2016, Merck’s Varivax reported revenues of ~$792 million, which represents ~15% growth YoY. The high pricing and purchases by public sectors in the US primarily propelled revenue growth in 2016. In 2016, growth in sales volume in certain emerging economies also contributed to high revenue growth.

In 2016, ProQuad, MMR-II, and Varivax together generated revenues of ~$1.6 billion compared to $1.5 billion in 2015. In 1Q17, ProQuad, MMR-II, and Varivax together generated revenues of around $355 million, which reflected an ~1% decline on a YoY basis and a 12% decline on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

The growth in Merck’s vaccine sales could boost the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD). Merck makes up ~1.4% of IWD’s total portfolio holdings. Merck’s peers in the vaccine market include GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Pfizer (PFE), Sanofi (SNY), AstraZeneca, and Emergent BioSolutions.

The chart above represents the combined revenue trajectory of ProQuad/MMR-II and Varivax.

About ProQuad

ProQuad is a vaccine indicated for active immunization for the prevention of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella infections. The vaccine is recommended to be administered to children aged 12 months–12 years.

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About MMR-II

MMR-II refers to measles, mumps, and rubella virus vaccine live. MMR-II is a live virus vaccine indicated for immunization against measles, mumps, and rubella infections. As recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (or ACIP), the first dose should be administered to children between the ages of 12 months and 15 months and the second dose for children between the ages of four and six years.

About Varivax

Varivax vaccine is administered to children 12 months or older for the active immunization for the prevention of varicella (chickenpox) infection.

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