Odds of beating earnings
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat the consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimate in 1Q17, missed it in 3Q16 and 4Q16, and met it in 2Q16.
How did OXY react to 1Q17 earnings results?
Occidental Petroleum announced its 1Q17 earnings on May 4, 2017, before the market opened. Occidental Petroleum reported adjusted EPS of $0.16, $0.09 better than the analyst estimate of $0.07. OXY’s 1Q17 earnings were $0.72 higher than its 1Q16 EPS of -$0.56, and $0.29 higher than its 4Q16 EPS of -$0.13. Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw Occidental Petroleum’s stock price fall from $59.43 to $57.30 in one session.
2Q16 post-earnings release price action
Occidental Petroleum announced its 2Q16 earnings on August 3, 2016, before the market opened. Excluding one-time items, OXY met the EPS estimate of -$0.18. Following the release, Occidental Petroleum’s stock price rose ~7% in five weeks.
Other oil and gas producers
In the last four quarters, upstream players Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Devon Energy (DVN), and Murphy Oil (MUR) have beaten earnings expectations ~75%, ~100%, and ~75% of the time, respectively. The SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) invests at least 80% of its total assets in oil and gas exploration companies.