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Analyzing ConocoPhillips’s Stock Performance after 2Q17 Earnings

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ConocoPhillips’s stock performance since 2Q17 earnings

ConocoPhillips announced its 1Q17 earnings on July 27, 2017, before the market opened. In 2Q17, ConocoPhillips’s reported revenues of ~$8.88 billion beat Wall Street analyst consensus for revenues of ~$7.28 billion. COP’s stock beat EPS (earnings per share) estimates by $0.16 in 2Q17. COP reported an adjusted profit of $0.14 per share, whereas Wall Street analyst consensus was for a loss of $0.02 per share. To learn more about COP’s net income and revenues, refer to parts 1 and 2 of this series.

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Since its 2Q17 earnings, ConocoPhillips’s stock price rose ~4% or from $43.70 to $45.26. COP’s stock price is making a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since its 1Q17 earnings in May 2017 and is on a bearish trend. Based on the current positive price momentum due to better-than-expected 2Q17 earnings, if COP’s price surpasses $46.43, it would mark the higher high for COP’s price trend.

On a weekly timeframe, COP’s stock is trading below its 50-week and 200-week moving averages. On July 28, 2017, COP’s stock price closed at $45.26, whereas its 50-week and 200-week moving averages stand at $45.44 and $53.58—which means COP’s stock price is slightly below its 50-week moving average.

Crude oil and natural gas prices

Since COP’s 2Q17 earnings, COP’s stock is outperforming crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices. Since COP’s 2Q17 earnings, crude oil (USO) prices rose ~2%. Natural gas (UNG) prices were also up ~1% during the same period.

Peers

Due to rising crude oil and natural gas prices since COP’s 2Q17 earnings, The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was down 0.21%, whereas XLE was up by close to 1%.  COP’s peers Marathon Oil (MRO) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) rose ~1% and ~2%, respectively, since COP’s 2Q17 earnings, which means COP outperformed its peers during the same period. Just like ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum has operations in the Permian Basin.

XLE generally invests at least 95% of its total assets in oil and gas companies.

In the next part of this series, we’ll take a look at COP’s short interest.

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