Forecasting ConocoPhillips’s Stock Price Using Implied Volatility

As of June 14, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) had implied volatility of ~26.0%, which is below its 260-trading day historical price volatility.

Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility of ~26.0%, and assuming a bell curve model with a standard deviation of one, ConocoPhillips’s stock price is expected to close between $40.68 and $47.24 after 30 calendar days. Based on the statistical formula, ConocoPhillips’s stock price will stay in this range ~68% of the time.

As of June 14, 2017, upstream stocks PE Energy (PE), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and RSP Permian (RSPP) had implied volatility of ~41.8%, ~31.2%, and ~39.2%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had implied volatility of ~8.4%.