The Outlook for Gold amid Volatility



Gold’s rollercoaster ride

As of May 17, 2017, the price of gold has risen ~10% YTD (year-to-date). It has been very volatile lately. Gold touched a five-month high of $1,284 per ounce in April following President Trump’s comments on a strong US dollar and his preference for the Fed keeping interest rates low. It reached $1,220 per ounce on May 9, 2017, as uncertainty in France lessened with its election ending, and then rebounded 3% following media reports of Trump sharing classified information with Russian officials.

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Gold miners’ performance

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has risen 12% YTD as of May 17, 2017. As for mining stocks, Kinross Gold (KGC) has risen the most, by 23% YTD. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has risen 14.5%, and Eldorado Gold (EGO) has risen 12.4%. Newmont Mining (NEM) and Yamana Gold (AUY), on the other hand, have dropped 1% and 4%, respectively. For more on miners’ performance, read How Gold Miner Stocks Performed in 1Q17.

In this series

In this series, we’ll look at the factors responsible for gold’s gain and reversal in 2017. To get an idea of where gold could be headed in 2017, we’ll also look at the Fed’s actions, Trump’s policies, geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, and the outlook for the US dollar. Let’s start by looking at the US job market.


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