Analyzing Nitrogen Fertilizer Shipment Growth in 1Q17

Previously in this series, we looked at fertilizer producers’ (MXI) top line performances in 1Q17. For fertilizer companies, revenue is a function of shipments and fertilizers’ average realized prices. While many companies sell multiple types of fertilizers, we’ll compare performances according to individual NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) fertilizer types.

In 1Q17, shipments for overall nitrogen fertilizers for the five companies in the above chart rose 17% YoY (year-over-year)—higher than a median of 12% YoY growth in 1Q16.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH) saw the highest growth in shipments. Its shipments rose 45% YoY to 598 thousand metric tons from 411 thousand tons a year ago. CVR Partners (UAN) also saw its shipments rise as much as 32% to 348 thousand metric tons from 263 thousand metric tons.

While the above two companies’ shipments grew higher than the median of 17%, CF Industries’ (CF) nitrogen shipment growth was 17% YoY at 4.3 million metric tons—compared to 3.6 million metric tons a year ago. Agrium’s (AGU) nitrogen segment shipments grew 4% YoY to 772 thousand metric tons from 741 thousand metric tons.

Among the companies in the above chart, PotashCorp (POT) was the only company that experienced a decline. Its nitrogen shipments fell as much as 6% to 1.57 million metric tons from 1.66 million metric tons.