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Understanding Mosaic’s Earnings Estimate for 1Q17 and Fiscal 2017

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EPS growth

Analysts’ estimate that Mosaic (MOS) will report EPS (earnings per share) of $0.17 per share for 1Q17, which would represent a 21% rise over 1Q16. This growth is also expected to continue throughout fiscal 2017.

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Fiscal 2017 estimates

For fiscal 2017, Wall Street analysts are estimating that Mosaic’s EPS will come in at $0.97, which would translate into a rise of 23% YoY (year-over-year) from $0.79 in fiscal 2016. Analysts estimate that most of this growth will likely take place in the second quarter of 2017.

While sales are estimated to grow only 3% in 2017, Mosaic’s EPS is estimated to grow 23%. (We saw earlier that analysts estimates for operating costs appear to show optimization for the company in fiscal 2017.) However, these upcoming earnings results should give us more information about the company’s costs going forward.

Peer estimates

For fiscal 2017, Wall Street analysts are estimating that Agrium’s (AGU) EPS could grow by as much as 9.6% to $5.35 per share from $4.88 per share in fiscal 2016. Similarly, analysts estimate a rise of 38% for Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT), with EPS reaching $0.56 in fiscal 2017 from $0.4 per share one year previously.

By contrast, CF Industries (CF), which produces only nitrogen fertilizers (MXI), is expected to see its earnings decline from $0.47 to $0.23 during the same period.

Next, we’ll discuss Mosaic’s valuation multiples.

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