Cobalt International Energy’s implied volatility
As of March 31, 2017, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) had an implied volatility of ~142.9%, which is ~41.6% above its 260-trading day historical price volatility of ~101.0%.
Stock price range forecast for the week
Assuming normal distribution of prices (the bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one, based on its implied volatility of ~142.9%, Cobalt International Energy stock is expected to close between $0.64 and $0.43 after seven calendar days. Based on the standard statistical formula, CIE stock will stay in that range ~68.0% of the time.
Other upstream stocks
As of March 31, 2017, other upstream stocks such as California Resources (CRC), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Southwestern Energy (SWN) have implied volatilities of ~78.2%, ~20.2%, and ~52.2%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has an implied volatility of ~11.2%.
Implied volatility shows the market’s opinion of a stock’s potential moves, but it doesn’t forecast direction. Implied volatility is derived from an option pricing model. That means the data are theoretical in nature, and there’s no guarantee these forecasts will be correct.