Behind ConocoPhillips Stock since the 4Q16 Results



Outperformance to crude oil

ConocoPhillips (COP) reported its 4Q16 earnings before the market opened on February 2, 2017. In 4Q16, excluding one-time items, ConocoPhillips reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.26—$0.16 better than the Wall Street analyst consensus of a loss per share of $0.42.

Since then, ConocoPhillips has seen its stock price outperform crude oil (USO) prices. The stock has risen marginally from $48.24 to $48.34 during the period, while crude oil prices have fallen from $53.88 per barrel to $49.62 per barrel during the same time.

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Have COP’s peers outperformed?

By comparison, peers Consol Energy (CNX) and Southwestern Energy (SWN) have fallen ~6% and ~11%, respectively, since ConocoPhillips’s 4Q16 earnings release. To be sure, the outperformance of ConocoPhillips has become more evident in light of the poorer performances by its oil and gas exploration and production peers (XOP).

However, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has shown a stronger performance than both COP and its peers during this period.

Medium-term price action

COP’s price rallied strongly from its low of $38.37 in August 2016 to its high of $52.89 in December 2016. Since then, COP stock price has been in a moderate downtrend. But on March 30, 2017, COP’s stock price climbed on the news of the transformational Canadian divestitures, and now COP’s stock price might be starting a new medium-term rally.

COP is now trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. On April 26, 2017, COP’s stock price closed at $48.34. Its 50-day and 200-day moving averages now stand at $47.59 and $45.43, respectively.

In the next and final part of this series, we’ll discuss COP’s institutional investors.


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