How Agrium’s Sales Could Look in 2H17



Agrium’s segments

Agrium (AGU) is in the agricultural fertilizer sector with its revenues coming from the retail and wholesale segment (MOO). Most of the company’s sales (or revenue) come from the retail segment. In 2016, more than 70% of the company’s sales came from its retail segment. Year-over-year, Agrium’s sales fell about 7.6% in 2016. Let’s see what analysts are estimating for the company in 2017.

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Sales estimates

For 1Q17, Wall Street analysts are estimating Agrium’s sales to come in at $2.78 billion, which would be a ~2% increase from $2.73 billion in the corresponding quarter a year ago. More than 40% of Agrium’s total annual sales take place in the second quarter as we can see in the chart above.

For the full year 2017, analysts are estimating Agrium’s sales to rise 3.7% to $14.1 billion from $13.7 billion in 2015. Sales are estimated to rise 3% in 2Q17, but most of the company’s 2017 growth will take place in 2H17.

Peer growth

Similar to Agrium, analysts estimate Mosaic’s (MOS) sales will rise 3.5% and that CF Industries’ (CF) sales will rise 15% year-over-year in 2017. In contrast, PotashCorp’s (POT) sales are estimated to fall 5% year-over-year. PotashCorp will announce its 1Q17 earnings on April 27. Read What to Expect from PotashCorp’s 1Q17 Earnings to learn more.

Next, we’ll discuss gross margin estimates for Agrium.


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