In the first 12 weeks of 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) stock was in a moderate downtrend. Year-to-date, ConocoPhillips stock has fallen ~9% from $49.87 to $45.38. During this period, crude oil (USO) prices have also remained subdued with a fall from $53.72 to $48.37.
COP peers Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Murphy Oil (MUR) have fallen ~10% and ~12%, respectively, since the start of 2017, whereas Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) is up ~3% during the same period. In 2017, oil and gas exploration and production companies (XOP) have been underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) by a wide margin.
However, when considering a longer timeframe of the past two years, it appears that COP stock is still making a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This pattern indicates the uptrend in COP’s stock is still intact and will end only when COP stock closes below $40.15 on a weekly basis. Currently, COP’s stock price is trying to regain its 50-week moving average, which stands at $44.72.
COP’s stock hit the 52-week low of $38.19 on April 5, 2016, whereas it hit a 52-week high of $53.17 on December 13, 2016. Currently, COP is trading below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average. On March 28, 2017, COP’s stock price closed at $45.38, whereas its 50-day and 200-day moving averages stand at $47.82 and $44.79, respectively.
Let’s now analyze the possible trading range for COP stock for the next seven calendar days based on its implied volatility.