Monthly US crude oil production
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that monthly US crude oil production fell by 91,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 8.8 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in December 2016—compared to the previous month. Production fell 1.1% month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year. The fall in US crude oil production could support crude oil (RYE) (IXC) (FENY) prices. For more on crude oil prices, read Part 1 of the series.
Read US Crude Oil Production: Highest Level since March 2016 for more on weekly US crude oil production.
Peaks and lows
US crude oil production peaked at 9.6 MMbpd in April 2015. In September 2016, production hit 8.6 MMbpd—the lowest monthly level since March 2014. Lower crude oil prices, higher break-even costs, and higher production costs for US shale oil producers compared to other oil producers led to the fall in US crude oil production.
US crude oil production estimates
The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will average 8,980,000 bpd and 9,530,000 bpd in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will rise to a 48-year high in 2018. US crude oil production averaged 8,880,000 bpd in 2016.
US production could rise in 2017 due to the following factors:
- technological advances increased US drilling activity—even at lower crude oil prices
- higher crude oil prices in 2017
- implementation of President Trump’s proposed energy policies
Next, we’ll analyze Libya’s crude oil production.