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Devon Energy Stock: Is the Uptrend Intact in 2017?

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Year-to-date performance

In the first three months of 2017, Devon Energy’s (DVN) stock price has been in a moderate downtrend. YTD (year-to-date), Devon Energy’s stock price performance is negative. Its stock fell ~9% from $45.60 to $41.45. During this period, crude oil (USO) prices also remained subdued and fell from $53.72 to $50.35. Devon Energy plans to steadily increase its activity over the next several quarters to as many as 15–20 rigs by the end of 2017. Devon Energy expects increased activity while remaining within its cash flow. Devon Energy’s production mix contains ~44% crude oil.

Devon Energy’s peers Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Murphy Oil (MUR) fell ~9% and ~8%, respectively, since the beginning of 2017. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) rose ~1% during the same period.

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Medium-term trend

When looking at the last two years, it appears that Devon Energy stock is still making a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. The pattern indicates that the uptrend in Devon Energy stock is still intact. It will only be violated when Devon Energy’s stock price closes below $36.54 on a weekly basis. Currently, Devon Energy’s stock price is trying to regain the 50-week moving average which stands at $41.45. Devon Energy stock hit the 52-week low of $25.74 on March 31, 2016. It hit the 52-week high of $50.55 on December 12, 2016.

Currently, Devon Energy is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. On March 30, 2017, Devon Energy’s stock price closed at $41.45, while its 50-day and 200-day moving averages stand at $43.26 and $42.39, respectively.

In the next part, we’ll analyze the possible trading range for Devon Energy stock based on its implied volatility.

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