ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility
As of February 24, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) had an implied volatility of ~27%, which is ~23.2% below its 260-trading day historical price volatility of ~35.1%.
Stock price range forecast for the week
Assuming normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and standard deviation of one, based on its implied volatility of ~27.0%, ConocoPhillips’s stock is expected to close between $48.80 and $45.28 after seven calendar days. Based on the standard statistical formula, ConocoPhillips’s stock will stay in this range ~68% of the time.
Other upstream stocks
As of February 24, 2017, California Resources (CRC), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Southwestern Energy (SWN) have implied volatilities of ~71.2%, ~19.7%, and ~59.0%, respectively. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has an implied volatility of ~11.6%.
Implied volatility shows the market’s opinion of the stock’s potential moves, but it doesn’t forecast direction. Implied volatility is derived from the option pricing model. This means the data is theoretical in nature and there’s no guarantee these forecasts will be correct.