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Using Oasis Petroleum’s Implied Volatility to Forecast Its Stock Price

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Feb. 8 2017, Updated 9:08 a.m. ET

Oasis Petroleum’s implied volatility

On February 6, 2017, Oasis Petroleum’s (OAS) implied volatility was ~52.5%, which was ~2% higher than its 15-day average of ~51.5%.

In comparison, Oasis Petroleum’s peers Continental Resources (CLR) and Sanchez Energy (SN) have implied volatilities of 40.8% and ~62.0%, respectively.

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Forecasting Oasis Petroleum’s stock price range

Based on Oasis Petroleum’s (OAS) implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of stock prices and a standard deviation of 1, with a probability of 68.2%, OAS’s stock could close between $12.81–$14.81 in the next seven days.

In the next part of this series, we’ll look at analysts’ price targets for Oasis Petroleum for the next 12 months.

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