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US Crude Oil Production Hit a 10-Month High: What’s Next?

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US crude oil production  

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil production rose by 24,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,001,000 bpd between February 10 and February 17, 2017. Production rose 0.3% week-over-week but fell 1.1% year-over-year. US crude oil production is at the highest level since April 2016. The rise in US crude oil production can pressure crude oil (ERX) (USL) (FENY) prices.

Lower crude oil prices have a negative impact on the earnings of oil and gas producers like Apache (APA), Northern Oil & Gas (NOG), Devon Energy (DVN), and Triangle Petroleum (TPLM). For more on crude oil prices, read part one of this series.

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Peaks and lows  

US crude oil production peaked at 9,600,000 bpd in June 2015. On the other hand, it hit a low of 8,428,000 bpd for the week ending July 1, 2016, the lowest level since June 2014. Since then, US crude oil production has risen ~6.8%.

Lower crude oil prices, higher break-even costs, and higher production costs for US shale oil producers compared to other oil producers led to the fall in US crude oil production in 2016.

However, the recovery in crude oil prices since early 2016 led to the rise in US crude oil drilling activity and US crude oil production in late 2016 and early 2017.

US crude oil production estimates

The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will average 8,980,000 bpd (barrels per day) and 9,530,000 bpd in 2017 and 2018, respectively. US crude oil production averaged 8,880,000 bpd in 2016. The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will rise to a 48-year high in 2018.

US production could rise in 2017 due to the following factors:

The rise in production could pressure US crude oil (USL) (PXI) prices. So, the US could be the main producer to offset a fall in the crude oil supply from major oil producers’ output cut deal.

In the next part of this series, we’ll take a look at US crude oil refinery input and crude oil imports.

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