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Did Arch Coal Meet Analysts’ 4Q16 Estimates?



Earnings announcement

Arch Coal (ARCH) announced its 4Q16 and fiscal 2016 earnings results on February 8, 2017. In this series, we’ll analyze the company’s 4Q16 results, compare its results with analysts’ expectations, and analyze the factors that caused the deviation, if any. We’ll also take a look at management’s guidance, analysts’ expectations, and the outlook for the company in 2017.

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Arch Coal’s stock reaction

Arch Coal posted strong operating performance for 4Q16. The company’s EPS (earnings per share) came in at $1.31 against analysts’ consensus EPS estimate of $0.58.

ARCH’s stock price fell nearly 2.7% during the intraday trading session on February 8, 2017. Although Arch Coal stock fell on the day of its 4Q16 earnings results, the stock rebounded strongly on February 9 and closed nearly 3% above its previous day’s closing price of $68.83. The absence of such movement in its peers’ stock prices can indicate that this was a stock-specific reaction.

Peer performance

On the day of Arch Coal’s earnings release, its peers Westmoreland Coal Company (WLB) and Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) fell nearly 2% and 1%, respectively. Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) closed nearly flat during the intraday trading session.

The broader coal market, tracked by the VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), gained nearly ~1%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed nearly unchanged during the same period.

Next, we’ll look at Arch Coal’s coal shipments in 4Q16.


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