As of February 10, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) had an implied volatility of ~26.5%. That’s ~30.3% below its 260-trading-day historical price volatility of ~38.1%.
Stock forecast for the week
Let’s assume a normal distribution of prices (the bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one. Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility of ~26.5%, COP stock is expected to close between $51.98 and $48.30 after seven calendar days. Based on the standard statistical formula, COP stock will stay in that range ~68.0% of the time.
Other upstream stocks
As of February 10, 2017, other upstream stocks such as California Resources (CRC), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Southwestern Energy (SWN) have implied volatilities of ~76.8%, ~19.6%, and ~57.9%, respectively. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has an implied volatility of ~10.9%.
Implied volatility shows the market’s opinion of the stock’s potential moves, but it doesn’t forecast direction. Implied volatility is derived from the option pricing model. That means the data are theoretical in nature and there’s no guarantee the forecasts will be correct.