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What’s Noble Energy’s Outlook for 2017 and Beyond?


Jan. 30 2017, Updated 9:07 a.m. ET

NBL’s long-term operating plan

On November 16, 2016, Noble Energy (NBL) provided its long-term outlook for 2016–2020. This outlook was provided along with its Clayton Williams (CWEI) acquisition announcement.

According to the company’s November 16, 2016, press release, the outlook “includes a forward base plan utilizing $50 per barrel WTI and Brent and $3 per thousand cubic feet Henry Hub natural gas for 2017, with modest oil price acceleration through 2020. An upside plan is also provided which adds $10 per barrel in commodity price to all periods.”

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Key 2016–2020 forecasts

Noble Energy expects its US onshore oil (USO) volumes to increase at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 28% in its base plan and 34% in its upside plan between 2016 and 2020.

Total US onshore production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% in its base plan and 20% in its upside plan through 2020. Total Delaware basin production volumes are expected to rise 73% to 83% by 2020 compared to 2016.

Adjusted for divestitures, Noble Energy’s total production is expected to grow at CAGRs of 11% and 15% in its base and upside plans, respectively, from 2016 to 2020. The company’s 2020 production volumes include a year of volumes from the Leviathan Gas Field. Read The Leviathan Gas Field: Noble Energy’s Key Discovery for more information.

Noble’s total operating cash flow is expected to rise at a CAGR of 33% in its base plan and 34% in its upside plan from 2016 to 2020.

Next, let’s discuss Noble Energy’s stock performance.


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