uploads/2017/01/Chart-10-1.jpg

Johnson & Johnson’s Valuation Cheat Sheet

By

Updated

Valuation multiples

We believe that the forward PE (price-to-earnings) and EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiples are the two best valuation multiples to use when valuing Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and other large pharmaceutical companies, given the relatively stable and visible natures of their earnings.

PE multiples are widely available and represent what one share can buy for an equity investor. EV-to-EBITDA multiples, on the other hand, are capital structure neutral.

The above chart shows Johnson & Johnson’s PE and EV-to-EBITDA multiples for the last six months.

Article continues below advertisement

Forward PE

On January 26, 2017, the company was trading at a forward PE of ~15.8x. Based on the last five years’ multiple range, JNJ’s current valuation is neither high nor low. Its PE has ranged from ~11.5x to ~18.4x.

Johnson & Johnson’s valuation multiple was opposite the industry trend until mid-2013, but it has since followed the trend. Whether the healthcare sector’s forward PE rises or falls, JNJ will definitely be affected. 

The industry is currently trading at a forward PE of ~15.9x. Other competitors Pfizer (PFE), Merck & Co. (MRK), and Eli Lilly (LLY) have forward PEs of 12.3x, 15.9x, and 18.2x, respectively.

Forward EV-to-EBITDA

On a capital-structure-neutral and excess-cash-adjusted basis, JNJ is currently trading at ~10.7x, lower than the industry average of ~11.1x. Pfizer, Merck & Co., and Eli Lilly have forward EV-to-EBITDA multiples of 9.4x, 9.5x, and 13.0x, respectively.

Investors can consider ETFs such as the SPDR S&P International Health Care Sector ETF (IRY) or the iShares US Pharmaceuticals ETF (IHE) in order to divest risk.

Advertisement

More From Market Realist