Will France’s Manufacturing PMI Speed Up Economic Growth?

According to data provided by Markit Economics, the final Markit France Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) was 51.7 in November 2016 compared to 51.8 in October. That was more than the initial estimate of 51.5.

France’s October manufacturing PMI showed a first-time expansion in manufacturing PMI after a contraction for seven consecutive months. A level above 50 indicates expansion in the economy, while anything below 50 indicates a contraction. November’s manufacturing PMI was a little weaker than October’s, but it was more than market expectations.

The improvement in France’s manufacturing PMI in November 2016 was mainly due to the following:

• Production volume and output rose marginally in November.
• Export orders and new orders rose at a higher rate in November.
• Employment growth remained unchanged in November.

The iShares MSCI France (EWQ), which tracks France’s performance, fell 2.0% in November 2016. The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK), which tracks Europe’s economic performance, fell 2.3% in November.

The economy also got a major shock due to the Brexit vote. Trade relations between the United Kingdom (EWU) and France could suffer, and both economies may experience a fall in exports and orders.

After the outcome of the US presidential election was announced, the global markets (ACWI) also showed huge fluctuations. However, the US market (QQQ) (SPY) is now having a rally. Market participants are expecting a change in the economic condition under a Donald Trump presidency.

In the next part of this series, we’ll look at the manufacturing PMI for Germany in November 2016.