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Upstream Stocks: Look at These High Implied Volatility Stocks

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High implied volatility                      

On December 23, 2016, Cobalt International Energy (CIE) had the highest implied volatility among the upstream stocks that are part of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). Its implied volatility was ~136%. It’s ~4.6% below its 15-day average of 134.6%.

On December 7, 2016, Cobalt International Energy announced the completion of its debt exchange and financing transaction with certain holders.

High implied volatility in a stock indicates the market’s expectation of a large movement in prices. In the next part, we’ll analyze Cobalt International Energy’s price returns.

Below is a breakdown of the implied volatilities of other upstream stocks on December 23, 2016:

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  • California Resources (CRC) had an implied volatility of ~82.6%—6.3% below its 15-day average.
  • Denbury Resources (DNR) had an implied volatility of 70.9%—5.5% below its 15-day average.
  • Whiting Petroleum (WLL) had an implied volatility of ~57.3%—approximately 9.3% below its 15-day average.
  • Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~56.5%—approximately 3.4% below its 15-day average.

Low implied volatility

On December 23, 2016, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) had the lowest implied volatility among upstream stocks at ~19.5%. It was 4.2% below its 15-day average of ~20.3%.

Let’s look at some other upstream stocks with low implied volatilities on December 23, 2016:

  • EOG Resources (EOG) had an implied volatility of ~23.4%—7.8% below its 15-day average.
  • ConocoPhillips (COP) had an implied volatility of ~23.5%—12.7% below its 15-day average.
  • Apache Corporation (APA) had an implied volatility of ~26.1%—approximately 11.8% below its 15-day average.
  • Cimarex Energy (XEC) had an implied volatility of ~28.8%—4.7% below its 15-day average.

A pattern emerges when we compare high implied volatility stocks to low implied volatility stocks. Most high volatility stocks are smaller upstream energy companies with weaker financial metrics. The stocks with lower volatilities are larger companies in a more solid financial situation.

In the next part of this series, we’ll look at the returns of these upstream stocks.

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