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Mining Stocks’ Volatility: What It Means for Investors

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Precious metal funds

As we saw in the previous part of this series, many of the fluctuations in precious metals have been a result of speculation about the Fed’s interest rate stance. Now, let’s take a look at the fundamentals of South African precious metal miners.

Precious metal–based funds such as the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and the Sprott Gold Miners (SGDM) fell over the past few months. On a trailing 30-day basis, they fell 15.9% and 13.2%, respectively, although they rose year-to-date.

Next, let’s look at the implied volatilities of large mining stocks and their RSI (relative strength index) levels in the wake of the carnage in precious metal prices. We’ll look at Gold Fields (GFI), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Silver Wheaton (SLW), and Coeur Mining (CDE).

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Implied volatility

Call-implied volatility takes into account the changes in an asset’s price due to variations in the price of its call option. During times of global and economic turbulence, volatility is higher than in a stagnant economy.

The volatilities of Gold Fields, Agnico, Silver Wheaton, and Coeur were 68.9%, 46.3%, 49.2%, and 62.3%, respectively, on December 5, 2016.

RSI levels

The RSI levels for each of these four mining giants fell due to their falling share prices. Gold Fields, Agnico, Silver Wheaton, and Coeur had RSI levels of 36.2, 38.7, 38.4, and 50.3, respectively.

The trailing 30-day returns of most mining companies are negative due to precious metals’ diminishing safe-haven appeal.

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