Natural gas prices
Natural gas (or NG) prices have performed well in 2016, rising 46% year-over-year.
The graph above compares how natural gas–weighted stocks have performed compared to natural gas prices and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), an ETF that tracks prompt natural gas futures.
Most natural gas–weighted companies have been tracking natural gas prices. Antero Resources (AR), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), and EQT Corporation (EQT) have mostly been outperforming UNG throughout 2016. All three companies outperformed UNG even in 1H16, which wasn’t a very good period for natural gas prices.
Currently, COG and EQT seem to be mirroring natural gas prices closely, while AR appears to be on a downtrend. COG and EQT have provided returns of 29% and 32%, respectively, since January 2016. AR has returned 7.4% in the same period.
Noble Energy (NBL) has been one of the worst performers among its peers, and it’s been in close competition with UNG in terms of year-to-date (or YTD) returns. NBL has returned 4% since January 2016, while UNG has returned ~-1.2% in the same period. For context, natural gas’s YTD returns are ~38.5%.
This series will focus on why COG has provided better returns than most of its peers. Apart from the obvious rise in natural gas prices, other factors could be at play. We’ll also explore factors that may have decelerated its stock price momentum of late.