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US Natural Gas Price Forecast for 2017 and Beyond

Gordon Kristopher - Author
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Nov. 20 2020, Updated 11:21 a.m. ET

Natural gas inventories 

US natural gas inventories are 5.9% more than their five-year average. However, the surplus is shrinking. If the trend continues, the surplus could turn into a deficit—particularly if the winter is harsh. A harsh winter can cause prices to rise sharply. For more on US natural gas prices, read Part 1 of this series.

Higher natural gas prices have a positive impact on oil and gas producers’ earnings such as WPX Energy (WPX), Gulfport Energy (GPOR), and Memorial Resources (MRD).

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US natural gas price forecasts 

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on October 13, 2016. In its previous edition, it estimated that US natural gas prices would average $2.42 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in 2016 and $2.87 per MMBtu in 2017.

World Bank forecast that US natural gas prices will average $2.30 per MMBtu in 2016, $3.00 per MMBtu in 2017, and $3.50 per MMBtu in 2018.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that US natural gas prices would average $2.3 per MMBtu in 2016, $3 per MMBtu in 2017, $3.1 per MMBtu in 2018, and $3.3 per MMBtu in 2019, respectively.

Asset management company AllianceBernstein estimates that US natural gas prices would average $2.5 per MMBtu in 2016, $3.5 per MMBtu in 2017, and $3 per MMBtu in 2018, respectively.

Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu this winter from November 2016 to March 2017.

Higher natural gas prices have a positive impact on oil and gas producers’ earnings such as WPX Energy, Gulfport Energy, and Memorial Resources.

Oil and natural gas prices also impact funds such as the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN (DGAZ), the First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas ETF (FCG), the VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN (UWTI), and the Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3X Shares ETF (GASL).

For more on natural gas price forecast, read Winter Weather and Inventories Could Impact Natural Gas Prices.

For related analysis, you can visit Market Realist’s Energy and Power page.

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