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What Are the Odds that Marathon Oil Will Beat Its 3Q16 Earnings?

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Marathon Oil’s earnings trend

In 2Q16, excluding one-time items, Marathon Oil (MRO) reported a loss per share of $0.23, which is $0.02 better than the consensus estimate of a loss per share of $0.25. Its revenues fell ~15% year-over-year to ~$1.3 billion.

Marathon Oil reported much lower EPS (earnings per share) in 2015 due to lower realized crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices. In 4Q14, Marathon Oil saw its adjusted earnings turn negative for the first time since 1999.

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Other upstream players

Since 2013, upstream players Denbury Resources (DNR), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and Range Resources (RRC) have beaten earnings expectations ~57%, ~71%, and ~67% of the time, respectively. Since 2013, Marathon Oil has beaten earnings expectations ~57% of the time.

Now let’s take a look at the production guidance of MRO and select peers.

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