uploads///MUR Q Pre Annotations

How Investors Have Reacted to Murphy Oil’s Past Earnings

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Dec. 4 2020, Updated 10:43 a.m. ET

Murphy Oil’s stock price action

After losing ~78% of its market capitalization from July 2014 to January 2016, Murphy Oil’s (MUR) stock price is finally showing signs of new uptrend. In April 2016, Murphy Oil’s stock crossed the 200-day moving average for the first time in 19 months, and it is currently trading ~10% above that level.

In April 2016, Murphy Oil’s stock price touched a two-year high. Since its January 2016 bottom, Murphy Oil’s stock price has risen a whopping ~109%.

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Murphy Oil’s relative performance

Recently, Murphy Oil (MUR) has shown poor relative strength when compared with other crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) producers. In the last three months, Murphy Oil’s stock price has fallen ~10%. Compare this with the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which rose ~7% during the same period.

Murphy Oil’s year-to-date performance

For 2016, MUR is outperforming bigger upstream companies from the S&P 500 (SPY). MUR is up ~33% in 2016, in contrast with larger oil and gas producers such as Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Marathon Oil (MRO), which rose ~13% and ~20%, respectively.

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Murphy Oil’s stock price performance after past earnings

Murphy Oil (MUR) reported its 2Q16 earnings after the market closed on July 27, 2016. In 2Q16, excluding the one-time items, Murphy Oil reported a loss of $0.36 per share, which is line with consensus estimates for a loss of $0.36 per share. Following the earnings release, Murphy Oil’s stock price fell ~12% in the four sessions.

Murphy Oil reported its 1Q16 earnings after the market closed on May 4, 2016. In 1Q16, excluding the one-time items, Murphy Oil reported a loss of $0.66 per share, which was $0.05 better than the consensus for a loss of $0.71 per share. Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw Murphy Oil’s stock price fall ~12% in the three sessions, indicating a contrarian reaction.

MUR reported its 4Q15 earnings after the market closed on January 27, 2016. In 4Q15, excluding the one-time items, MUR reported a loss of $0.76 per share—$0.55 better than a consensus for a loss of $1.31 per share. Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw Murphy Oil’s stock price increase ~8% in the two sessions.

In its 3Q15 earnings, Murphy Oil reported a loss of $0.72 per share—$0.20 better than the consensus for a loss of $0.92 per share. Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw MUR’s stock price increase ~15% in just six sessions.

A similar upward reaction was observed after the company’s 4Q14 earnings, when MUR’s stock price increased ~19% in just 11 sessions after beating the consensus earnings estimates by $0.10 per share.

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